Buy pressure proxies (exchange outflows → bonders)
Most LPT buying happens off-chain (CEX order books), so on-chain we use proxies:
- L1 LPT transfers from labeled exchange wallets → recipient wallets (exchange outflows).
- Whether those recipients bond on Arbitrum, and how soon after the first exchange inflow.
- Best-effort overlap with cashout-heavy wallets (sell-pressure proxies).
This is not proof of buyers or hedges; treat it as a reproducible signal to combine with other packs.
Summary
-
Generated:
2026-01-22T02:19:47.491403+00:00 -
Ethereum RPC:
https://rpc.flashbots.net -
Arbitrum RPC:
https://arb1.arbitrum.io/rpc -
L1 window:
14600000→24287265 -
Arbitrum window (Bond scan):
0→423885844 -
Labeled exchange wallets scanned: 23
-
Unique unlabeled recipients (any size): 11,637
-
Total unlabeled recipient inbound: 127,182,765.742 LPT
-
Selected recipients (≥ 10000 LPT): 200
-
Selected inbound total: 90,746,628.915 LPT
-
Selected recipients in Arbitrum delegator set: 5
-
Bonded within 30d of first exchange inflow: 4
-
Selected delegator inbound total: 2,067,366.020 LPT (2.28%)
-
Bonded-within-window inbound total: 1,792,981.745 LPT (1.98%)
Top recipients (selected)
Columns: inbound from labeled exchanges on L1, whether the address is known as an Arbitrum delegator, and (best-effort) whether it bonded soon after the first inflow.
| Rank | Recipient | Inbound (LPT) | Txs | First inflow | Arbitrum delegator | Bond ≤ window | Bonded now (LPT) | Cashout fp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0x2110e5ed88b0489797f6a1d997815d2b360fe43b | 5,144,219.624 | 66 | 2022-05-11 | 0.000 | |||
| 2 | 0x2d6ee5c8a3b2370cbc0de309bf5d1a4aa09c3918 | 3,569,484.010 | 854 | 2022-08-17 | 0.000 | |||
| 3 | 0xe3792a9c235d434b702023b33f03c48c41631090 | 3,244,302.705 | 670 | 2022-06-24 | 0.000 | |||
| 4 | 0x9c3b2c8fa50fa171ba438433b4908bde8922935c | 2,878,402.250 | 542 | 2022-04-18 | 0.000 | |||
| 5 | 0x0084dfd7202e5f5c0c8be83503a492837ca3e95e | 2,706,594.054 | 687 | 2022-06-15 | 0.000 | |||
| 6 | 0xc1c4a5c41b62989acdbb9a11bbab668158f5d481 | 2,159,847.638 | 1965 | 2024-02-17 | 0.000 | |||
| 7 | 0xab782bc7d4a2b306825de5a7730034f8f63ee1bc | 1,810,165.214 | 658 | 2024-01-09 | 0.000 | |||
| 8 | 0x41fbba5cb38d22b2d80606406944cedd7c97f6f9 | 1,671,120.390 | 234 | 2023-05-27 | 0.000 | |||
| 9 | 0x7e6af92df2aecd6113325c0b58f821ab1dce37f6 | 1,452,755.063 | 891 | 2023-10-09 | 0.000 | |||
| 10 | 0x8048498c795c15f6471161ae029f6c888f43cb54 | 1,358,889.028 | 1068 | 2024-09-12 | 0.000 | |||
| 11 | 0x3c5883c650d600bd543a9b5c8d9a3a6f5d16b8f4 | 1,270,899.991 | 264 | 2022-04-21 | 0.000 | |||
| 12 | 0x21debfa81fc74415383cfbc597f77ccf6b61334b | 1,257,224.313 | 245 | 2024-10-23 | 0.000 | |||
| 13 | 0x3acedc6f89c65a288f25e80d9080898c3ca66776 | 1,229,446.042 | 1358 | 2022-06-25 | 0.000 | |||
| 14 | 0xd8d6ffe342210057bf4dcc31da28d006f253cef0 | 1,212,171.919 | 678 | 2022-08-18 | 0.000 | |||
| 15 | 0x22e0b8dd688f34a0cc21709ee64f52fe4de4d599 | 1,077,861.815 | 251 | 2022-07-19 | 0.000 | |||
| 16 | 0x95b564f3b3bae3f206aa418667ba000afafacc8a | 1,001,446.700 | 265 | 2022-04-21 | 0.000 | |||
| 17 | 0x91d40e4818f4d4c57b4578d9eca6afc92ac8debe | 911,758.378 | 2 | 2025-03-19 | 0.000 | |||
| 18 | 0x002e1798bff1ea5bcd703133eb61706070080c19 | 876,234.907 | 258 | 2022-06-04 | 0.000 | |||
| 19 | 0xfee86db2b983a5c4418c314c9bc1d724c0abf929 | 872,562.881 | 213 | 2023-09-05 | 0.000 | |||
| 20 | 0x5d0492749595406812001ee163b00f1a0506e4a0 | 857,619.424 | 266 | 2022-12-03 | 0.000 | |||
| 21 | 0x8389f4f008c3a3d72662d2b77f6bee3ca6cc6174 | 827,689.140 | 234 | 2023-08-23 | 0.000 | |||
| 22 | 0xf217f7facf4e53b334217d3dcb3e86d32974c7c4 | 814,654.908 | 103 | 2023-07-10 | 0.000 | |||
| 23 | 0xd8b9f62de8b8217ab997df060a47c020c81f9997 | 812,509.000 | 2 | 2024-08-16 | 0.000 | |||
| 24 | 0x962b029508b1054e2af4184bbaeb5d0c796f7526 | 812,507.000 | 2 | 2025-03-12 | yes | yes | 0.000 | #6 |
| 25 | 0xbdc7b3526f593f6ccbf620efb0c972bea707a941 | 812,434.830 | 4 | 2022-12-19 | 0.000 | |||
| 26 | 0x1c2a393e3e7d14f4b8b9e9819217c2e8dfdb10d6 | 808,664.321 | 209 | 2022-12-22 | 0.000 | |||
| 27 | 0x39e274cb173999eca1cc3daf0c3e938d2cd69a50 | 780,857.135 | 409 | 2023-12-20 | 0.000 | |||
| 28 | 0x20a3a4ae2aacb8bbcfd89dc71280dd18cd9a0cb4 | 768,612.113 | 801 | 2023-12-28 | 0.000 | |||
| 29 | 0x47513e36b088a366e6fe7aab2c67b37957c35005 | 756,700.160 | 8 | 2023-08-23 | 0.000 | |||
| 30 | 0x989a69a3e608483ae3f6fb21e2874f5c8fb98697 | 751,628.206 | 343 | 2022-04-21 | 0.000 | |||
| 31 | 0x9dc54226c0f86245707396255d4fcd87eb55b676 | 689,837.528 | 1 | 2023-04-26 | 0.000 | |||
| 32 | 0x8fef490d614fce8b93bd6f28835dd35a8b3229a9 | 682,311.090 | 187 | 2023-06-30 | 0.000 | |||
| 33 | 0x0bec9f000860c03383757265c952969fa6f9a090 | 678,508.502 | 113 | 2023-08-29 | 0.000 | |||
| 34 | 0xd1305fbda97c035f86fdaa7785fb568c203174e1 | 646,306.345 | 348 | 2022-04-25 | 0.000 | |||
| 35 | 0xe66baa0b612003af308d78f066bbdb9a5e00ff6c | 634,583.350 | 259 | 2024-10-24 | 0.000 | |||
| 36 | 0x22a709eece6ee82293e5fcdeea7ceefdefd499cd | 587,043.993 | 11 | 2024-07-09 | yes | yes | 0.000 | #19 |
| 37 | 0x771713755f5a887ef7a455220cb493e0aca73120 | 582,124.797 | 43 | 2023-08-10 | 0.000 | |||
| 38 | 0x3aff86656a65f3d81b3e0b4c4f8d4199f3b3fbde | 579,822.860 | 666 | 2023-08-09 | 0.000 | |||
| 39 | 0xa7a5c7602bd8a0b156980b9c41efa781e1af208f | 572,560.030 | 109 | 2025-08-18 | 0.000 | |||
| 40 | 0xf733c29e2918271490d8318846f617b16e613be0 | 567,555.490 | 91 | 2025-08-26 | 0.000 | |||
| 41 | 0x5fa485b644fba4335fdabc820752038c0dcb8cdb | 557,895.649 | 2 | 2022-12-28 | 0.000 | |||
| 42 | 0x478271c960137418c9d90082dddbf68aa72e4367 | 535,011.427 | 236 | 2022-05-15 | 0.000 | |||
| 43 | 0x5d550635f87e21337462b582dff589f552e609ae | 521,269.561 | 549 | 2022-11-02 | 0.000 | |||
| 44 | 0xe129188380d48fa09a6a89ac91adc761afdc1612 | 511,923.447 | 762 | 2024-03-26 | 0.000 | |||
| 45 | 0xfc9161b99a3b0691477e12737163d007600ac262 | 503,262.663 | 147 | 2025-05-30 | 0.000 | |||
| 46 | 0x37ec907ec1f200fa6b86522d27ba2af478652aa0 | 502,385.810 | 3 | 2023-09-04 | 0.000 | |||
| 47 | 0xecda6cec1fcf38429138ca06a7bcbbc4415f9586 | 500,000.000 | 1 | 2024-05-14 | 0.000 | |||
| 48 | 0x5770815b0c2a09a43c9e5aecb7e2f3886075b605 | 485,452.568 | 838 | 2022-11-23 | 0.000 | |||
| 49 | 0x07a48c5a537d9c7ac079aefe875b209dc8360704 | 484,061.090 | 200 | 2022-05-02 | 0.000 | |||
| 50 | 0xe5bd360c2336066482324a0298235850eb39da9c | 470,397.300 | 68 | 2023-04-11 | 0.000 |
Delegator overlap (selected)
The selected recipients that overlap with the Arbitrum delegator set are rare and skew toward cashout-heavy wallets.
| Rank | Delegator | Inbound (LPT) | First inflow | Bond after inflow (d) | To Livepeer L1 contracts (LPT) | To labeled exchanges (LPT) | Cashout fp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0x962b029508b1054e2af4184bbaeb5d0c796f7526 | 812,507.000 | 2025-03-12 | 0.285821 | 812,507.000 | 0.000 | #6 |
| 36 | 0x22a709eece6ee82293e5fcdeea7ceefdefd499cd | 587,043.993 | 2024-07-09 | 0.072662 | 587,043.993 | 0.000 | #19 |
| 91 | 0x0b13315bc1638ce38805c827f308cb2f1a2be45b | 274,384.275 | 2023-02-20 | 66.37692 | 274,384.275 | 0.000 | |
| 121 | 0xc69381073814920d1ce2bb009ac9982a74679814 | 214,959.920 | 2025-04-04 | 0.016944 | 214,959.920 | 0.000 | |
| 152 | 0x0a776abbaae0e2161d0e131f57e605efbea4b99b | 178,470.832 | 2024-06-28 | 0.014432 | 178,470.832 | 0.000 |
Notes + limitations
- “Exchange” coverage is label-set based; many exchange wallets are unlabeled.
- Exchange outflows include internal wallet management as well as customer withdrawals; we exclude labeled destinations from the candidate set.
- Seeing an exchange outflow followed by a bond is suggestive, but does not prove that the inflow funded the bond (bridging and wallet reuse can vary).
- Recipient outflows are computed only for the top-N selected recipients and only to labeled exchanges/bridges (best-effort).
Raw output: see research/buy-pressure-proxies.json.